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So the United Kingdom wakes up to another bird flu story - this time a commercial flock of 35,000 chickens is found to be infected with an H7 variant of avian influenza.

Suddenly these “H” and “N” letters take on a significance that very few of us realised six months ago. Even with my scientific background, I had no idea about all these different variants of the influenza virus, yet these small differences in the surface properties of the virus make huge differences to its lethality and species specificity.

This is an excellent article about the various forms of influenza viruses, but in essence, an influenza virus binds to a specific cell with its “H” surface proteins and then blows a hole in that cell with its “N” proteins.

Like a lock and key, the configuration of a virus’s H proteins (H5, H7 etc) determine which cells can bind the virus. This is why the H7 avian flu virus found in the UK bears no threat to humans - that virus cannot lock onto our cells - its H7 “key” doesn’t fit our cell “locks”.

A few months ago, the discovery of a variant of avian flu in a poultry farm would have gone almost unnoticed, however today it is different.

We want to know about it, yet we are relieved by those H’s and N’s. In this case they signify a virus that is bad news for chickens, but not bad news for humans.

I am beginning to wonder if avian flu is predominantly a disease that affects asian countries.

We read today that Hungary is removing its bird flu restrictions as no new cases have been found. Scotland, too, no longer has any avian flu restrictions, and the small outbreaks in France and Germany seem to have been contained very effectively.

Elsewhere, though, both Pakistan and India are suffering serious outbreaks of bird flu and Afghanistan now has it throughout the whole country.

If I am correct, then it probably is not down to weather and environmental factors, but down to the social and economic conditions in these asian countries, notably in rural areas.

Poverty forcing people to live in close proximity to their chickens, markets overflowing with thousands of live fowl, and lower standards of animal care make these countries a breeding ground for the H5N1 virus.

These conditions don’t exist in other, more affluent countries, making an outbreak more easy to contain.

Of course, many african countries share similar conditions to those in Asia, however we are hearing less news about avian influenza in those countries, other than Egypt, and I’m not sure why that is.

For Westerners this might well be good news, however we must remember that bird flu is having a major economic impact in those asian countries infected with it. I have been receiving some emails from people in Indian and Pakistan who testify to this.

I was reading an interesting interview with Michael Cherkasky, Chief Executive of Marsh & McLennan, in the Daily Telegraph.

Marsh & Mclennan are the worlds large insurance brokers so Michael Cherkasky is accustomed to evaluating risk. He feels that there is a strong chance that there will be an influenza pandemic at some stage, but that avian flu, will probably not be it.

What he fears though, is the spread of a virulent disorder that he terms “infodemic”. With global communications being so fast and available, information can spread rapidly causing needless consternation across a number of countries.

Global stockmarkets, supply chains and “just in time” manufacturing systems are all sensitive to buyer sentiments so fast travelling news can have a large impact on economies throughout the world - even though the actual substance of the news is very minor.

For example, Michael Cherkasky quotes Sars, which actually killed fewer than 1000 people, but triggered global costs of $40bn. The “infodemic” created more problems than the actual disease itself.

About:

Young tourists become the victims of a homicidal maniac in the Australian outback.

For:

Well directed, well acted, superb photography of the Australian outback. You identify with the characters and are horrified by their fate. Make’s you think twice about a road trip across Australia - I bet the Oz tourist board are not happy.

Against:

Realistic and horrifying violence too much to bear at times. Watch it once, but not again. Some plot weaknesses, only loosely based on true events.

A barrel of crude oil hit an all time high of $72.20 last week, and it’s price is set to go higher.

In the UK, we can already see the effect of these record oil prices - a gallon of petrol is now about 97p per litre (note not a gallon!). It won’t be long before a litre of pertrol is £1 here, with similar price increases in Europe, and even, I hear, the United States.

As we all know, rising oil prices trigger price rises throughout the whole economy as transportation costs increases affect almost everything we buy. Industries have to charge more for their products as their energy costs increase, heating costs increase and those on low incomes become more at risk from hyperthermia in their own homes. Many other economic effects ripple through our economies.

A world recession could be the result.

So which risk poses a greater effect to the economies of the world - the small “potential” threat from H5N1 bird flu, or the “actual” threat of high, and rising oil prices.

Answers on a postcard please - send them to George Bush.

The news about bird flu has been a bit depressing today.

Indionesia has suffered its 24th death from the disease and avian flu marches forever onwards through the Asian countries - Pakistan is the latest country to report its presence in commercial poultry.

On the other hand we hear that Roche have donated 3 million doses of Tamiflu to the World Health Organisation (WHO) , with another two million placed in reserve for use in regions where a pandemic is most likely.

Reacting rapidly to a viral outbreak is critical in controlling its spread and the ability of a government to quickly distribute large quantities of anti viral drugs into an affected zone is vital. With this donation, the WHO can now help control the spread of the disease in countries who do not have the resources to create stockpiles of anti virals such as Tamiflu.

Of course Tamiflu must be one of the most sought after drugs worldwide at the moment, and Roche is already making huge profits as governments rush to stockpile, however the costs involved in creating and storing these five million doses is considerable.

Roche is putting something significant back into the world society - it must be applauded for this.

About:

A teenage girl is possessed with evil spirits - or is she mentally ill? A court drama with a difference.

For:

Well acted court drama with harrowing exorcism scences keep you involved and tense throughout. Your opinions sway from the supernatural to mental illnesss and back again as the drama unfolds. One to remember and to see again.

Against:

Probably too intense and harrowing for a younger audience.

Well its seems that according to some European pension fund chiefs that not only would a flu pandemic prove to be immensely damaging economically, it may actually reduce the burden on pension funds, as elderly members succumb to the disease!

The article then goes on to say that other problems for pension funds may ensue as the ratio between fit and frail people will alter as the frail will suffer higher mortality rates. This means that the benefits mentioned above may be mitigated by the greater funding of pensions needed for the longer living survivors.

This paints a pretty bleak picture, but I guess it’s sensible for financial institutions to model the various scenarios and assess the long term economic impact of a pandemic.

This is timely, in my opinion, as we are due a flu pandemic at some stage, even if it isn’t from the current bird flu, and plannning for all eventualities is prudent and sensible. It is this level of detail that should actually minimise the impact of a pandemic when/if it hits, which is one of the major differences from the “Spanish flu” pandemic of 1918.

If you’ve been worrying about the possible parallels between the current H5N1 bird flu outbreaks and the “Spanish flu” pandemic of 1918, then I recommend that you read this article.

The author presents a clear argument to state that the conditions in 1918, at the end of that dreadful war are hugely different from the conditions throughout the world now.

He also adds that the N5N1 virus has had many years to make the leap from bird lethality into a human transmissable variant, and that hasn’t happened. Indeed he argues that H5N1 is just as likely to mutate into a less lethal strain as it is into a human killer.

Read the excellent article and feel slightly more re-assured.

I notice that the volume of news about bird flu has reduced over the last few days. Although it might be the run up to Easter that is causing this, I rather think that we are in a lull phase at the moment.

The bird flu scare in the UK has subsided - avian flu is no longer on the front pages of the newspapers or much discussed on the news programmes at the moment - and with no further outbreaks reported in other European countries, it is tempting to think, or hope, that the problem is going away.

Well not quite. Russia is reporting cases of avian flu and the thirty third person in Indionesia to be diagnosed with H5N1 has been reported by the authorities.

The threat of bird flu isn’t going away, however maybe there is a glimmer of hope that it can be contained, at least in more developed countries.

Germany and France seem to have contained avian flu successfully and the United States is starting to feel a degree of confidence about its abilities to reduce the impact of the disease, should the H5N1 virus arrive in that country.

Lets hope. Lets see what can be done in the less well developed countries where containing the disease is much more difficult.

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