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Its pleasing that two Egyptian children have survived their ordeal with H5N1. Tamiflu was prescribed, presumably as soon as possible after admittance to hospital, and this may have been what saved them.

I personally think it is unlikely that H5N1 will mutate into a human transmissable form, however doctors in various parts of the world are starting to acquire expertise and experience in treating human bird flu victims and this can only be beneficial should people start acquiring this disease in larger numbers.

Tamiflu looks to be a key tool in fighting bird flu in humans, though a number of other drugs and vaccines are being tested, so I hope countries around the world are working to stockpile this in sufficient quantities.

I have been contacted by a number of people who are concerned about eating chicken and various meats. I’m not qualified to comment on this really, but hopefully this article on the BBC website should reassure people that the current bird flu problem “is in a wild bird, it is not in our poultry flocks. It is certainly not a food scare, there is no imminent danger.”

My own view is that considerable care is being taken to protect commercial poultry flocks and that we need have no concerns, at the moment, about the risk of bird flu contaminating chicken and other meats. Fear can do far more damage to our poultry industries, which are worth £7billion, than bird flu at this point.

There is speculation today that the dead swan found in Scotland was probably a native of the area rather than a migratory bird from another part of Europe.

The swan is a mute swan which is native to the UK, though mute swans can also be migratory.

Of course if this was a bird from the UK, then it must have caught the virus from another source. Genetic tests on the H5N1 virus that killed it show that this is the same virus that is prevalent in other European countries, so it must have been carried to the UK from Europe by a migratory bird.

In the UK we must prepare ourselves for the inevitable news that H5N1 was responsible for at least some of the deaths of the other 14 birds that are currently being tested for bird flu. I understand that 12 of these are swans.

With so much airtime in the UK being devoted, quite rightly, to the dead swan in Scotland, lets not forget that Egypt has announced its 9th case of bird flu in humans - a toddler.

When you read that the childs parents kept and bred chickens in their house, and that some of the chickens were ill, it is perhaps easy for us to think they were being foolish, particularly with bird flu prevalent in the country. However, these families often rely on their small flocks for their livelyhood. They probably had no choice, and are suffering as a result, but I hope that their child recovers very soon.

Not the scandal of the week, and maybe not a scandal at all, but the BBC is reporting that the dead swan found in Scotland wasn’t discovered yesterday, like everybody initially thought, but was discovered on 29th March. That is over a week ago!

This is alarming, not because of the likelyhood that other animals or birds could have been infected and then moved out of the local area during that week, but because if it takes the UK authorities so long to diagnose and report a case then we have little hope of containing the disease should it be found in multiple locations.

On this timescale, by the time we know for certain that a bird died from H5N1, the disease would have a week to be transmitted to others, who could take the disease into other areas.

To quote from the BBC article: “Samples from the dead bird are being investigated at the headquarters of Defra’s Veterinary Laboratories Agency at Weybridge - which is also the laboratory where all cases of bird, or avian, flu in the EU are confirmed.”

It seems that this single laboratory in the United Kingdom presents a logistical bottleneck in our ability to diagnose, track and contain cases of bird flu - samples have to be sent there from all over the UK and the EU, then logged and processed. By that time, I wonder how many other birds or animals have been infected.

With their abilitiy to fly long distances, swans have been responsible for carrying bird flu into several countries. The swan found in Scotland apparently was washed ashore into the harbour of a small coastal village called Cellardyke in Scotland.

It must have died reasonably close to shore, though it was reportedly decomposed and had been seen floating in the water for several days. It makes me wonder if the North Sea (and others) is littered with dead swans who never made it to land. If they float after death, which is sounds like they do, it must be likely that seagulls would peck at them and therefore become infected too. I don’t know if other bird species, such as gulls, are susceptible to avian influenza, but if they are then this represents real concern because the spread of the disease could be very rapid indeed.

I need to know about the species specificity of avian flu. When I find out, I’ll pass it on. If you know, please let me know too, or post a comment.

Someone has kindly pointed out to me that a swan has been identified with bird flu in Scotland. Judging by this article it seems that the strain is H5 and not the lethal H5N1, however this is yet to be confirmed.

Interestingly, the outbreak simulation exercise that was underway in the UK, has been curtailed as containment measures are being brought into play for real.

I find it reassuring that London and Singapore are devoting significant resources to testing their readiness for possible outbreaks of avian flu.  The London based exercise started today and is involving a large number of authorities who will be tasked with managing and containing a bird flu outbreak.

Note that they are testing their responses to avian flu in the bird population, not humans and I think this is the correct approach.  Containing an outbreak with various levels of exclusion zones will reduce the risk of the virus spreading across the country and maybe into the population as a whole. 

Testing that each agency understands their roles and responsibilities now, rather in the heat of the moment, has to be sensible.  I guess the UK government has looked long and hard at their poor response to foot and mouth disease about five years ago.

When, I wonder, are other countries going to start simulating bird flu outbreaks.  Of course some European countries - France and Germany, for example - are doing this in earnest already but countries with reliance on agriculture should be undertaking similar exercises too.

I’ve finally decided that I should join the millions publishing their own blog online. 

I guess the main reason is that whilst researching and editing the news articles for SurvivingFlu.com I frequently feel that there is much more to say, however I don’t think it’s appropriate to mix my opinions with the news items on the site. 

I had thought about an “editorial” section, which might have fitted the bill, but instead I decided to seperate my thoughts and opinions from the more objective nature of that site.

There are also subjects other than bird flu that I would like to write about, so starting a blog here gives me a broader canvas on which to paint my distorted view of the world - sorry!

Please share your views here - all comments are welcome and I need to be kept on the straight and narrow!

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