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I was reading an interesting interview with Michael Cherkasky, Chief Executive of Marsh & McLennan, in the Daily Telegraph.

Marsh & Mclennan are the worlds large insurance brokers so Michael Cherkasky is accustomed to evaluating risk. He feels that there is a strong chance that there will be an influenza pandemic at some stage, but that avian flu, will probably not be it.

What he fears though, is the spread of a virulent disorder that he terms “infodemic”. With global communications being so fast and available, information can spread rapidly causing needless consternation across a number of countries.

Global stockmarkets, supply chains and “just in time” manufacturing systems are all sensitive to buyer sentiments so fast travelling news can have a large impact on economies throughout the world - even though the actual substance of the news is very minor.

For example, Michael Cherkasky quotes Sars, which actually killed fewer than 1000 people, but triggered global costs of $40bn. The “infodemic” created more problems than the actual disease itself.

A barrel of crude oil hit an all time high of $72.20 last week, and it’s price is set to go higher.

In the UK, we can already see the effect of these record oil prices - a gallon of petrol is now about 97p per litre (note not a gallon!). It won’t be long before a litre of pertrol is £1 here, with similar price increases in Europe, and even, I hear, the United States.

As we all know, rising oil prices trigger price rises throughout the whole economy as transportation costs increases affect almost everything we buy. Industries have to charge more for their products as their energy costs increase, heating costs increase and those on low incomes become more at risk from hyperthermia in their own homes. Many other economic effects ripple through our economies.

A world recession could be the result.

So which risk poses a greater effect to the economies of the world - the small “potential” threat from H5N1 bird flu, or the “actual” threat of high, and rising oil prices.

Answers on a postcard please - send them to George Bush.

The news about bird flu has been a bit depressing today.

Indionesia has suffered its 24th death from the disease and avian flu marches forever onwards through the Asian countries - Pakistan is the latest country to report its presence in commercial poultry.

On the other hand we hear that Roche have donated 3 million doses of Tamiflu to the World Health Organisation (WHO) , with another two million placed in reserve for use in regions where a pandemic is most likely.

Reacting rapidly to a viral outbreak is critical in controlling its spread and the ability of a government to quickly distribute large quantities of anti viral drugs into an affected zone is vital. With this donation, the WHO can now help control the spread of the disease in countries who do not have the resources to create stockpiles of anti virals such as Tamiflu.

Of course Tamiflu must be one of the most sought after drugs worldwide at the moment, and Roche is already making huge profits as governments rush to stockpile, however the costs involved in creating and storing these five million doses is considerable.

Roche is putting something significant back into the world society - it must be applauded for this.

Well its seems that according to some European pension fund chiefs that not only would a flu pandemic prove to be immensely damaging economically, it may actually reduce the burden on pension funds, as elderly members succumb to the disease!

The article then goes on to say that other problems for pension funds may ensue as the ratio between fit and frail people will alter as the frail will suffer higher mortality rates. This means that the benefits mentioned above may be mitigated by the greater funding of pensions needed for the longer living survivors.

This paints a pretty bleak picture, but I guess it’s sensible for financial institutions to model the various scenarios and assess the long term economic impact of a pandemic.

This is timely, in my opinion, as we are due a flu pandemic at some stage, even if it isn’t from the current bird flu, and plannning for all eventualities is prudent and sensible. It is this level of detail that should actually minimise the impact of a pandemic when/if it hits, which is one of the major differences from the “Spanish flu” pandemic of 1918.

If you’ve been worrying about the possible parallels between the current H5N1 bird flu outbreaks and the “Spanish flu” pandemic of 1918, then I recommend that you read this article.

The author presents a clear argument to state that the conditions in 1918, at the end of that dreadful war are hugely different from the conditions throughout the world now.

He also adds that the N5N1 virus has had many years to make the leap from bird lethality into a human transmissable variant, and that hasn’t happened. Indeed he argues that H5N1 is just as likely to mutate into a less lethal strain as it is into a human killer.

Read the excellent article and feel slightly more re-assured.

I notice that the volume of news about bird flu has reduced over the last few days. Although it might be the run up to Easter that is causing this, I rather think that we are in a lull phase at the moment.

The bird flu scare in the UK has subsided - avian flu is no longer on the front pages of the newspapers or much discussed on the news programmes at the moment - and with no further outbreaks reported in other European countries, it is tempting to think, or hope, that the problem is going away.

Well not quite. Russia is reporting cases of avian flu and the thirty third person in Indionesia to be diagnosed with H5N1 has been reported by the authorities.

The threat of bird flu isn’t going away, however maybe there is a glimmer of hope that it can be contained, at least in more developed countries.

Germany and France seem to have contained avian flu successfully and the United States is starting to feel a degree of confidence about its abilities to reduce the impact of the disease, should the H5N1 virus arrive in that country.

Lets hope. Lets see what can be done in the less well developed countries where containing the disease is much more difficult.

Perhaps all this research into avian flu is making me paranoid.

I was at the gym this morning, pounding away on the treadmill, when I noticed a crow flutter out of the sky onto the grass in the playing field behind the gym The crow lay on the grass and only occasionally moved a wing when its mate landed a few feet away.

It was the way the crow almost fell out of the sky that had attracted my attention, but as it lay there, motionless, I became convinced that its behaviour wasn’t normal - it was ill, I thought.

It could be suffering from bird flu, I thought, particularly as we only live about 5 miles from the sea on the east coast of the United Kingdom.

With headlines of “second bird found in the UK with bird flu” running through my mind, I went back to look again about half an hour later. It was still lying there.

Although the UK government say that you should only report a case of suspected flu if you find three or more birds of the same species dead in the same area, I thought that the way this bird was obviously dying made this a special case.

I went to find the number to phone the authorities and when I got back, to have another look, the bird had gone!

Yep - I’m becoming paranoid - though it must be good to be vigilent.

There seems to be a strong international flavour to the avian flu news today. I suppose with no main point of focus, such as with the UK last week, news items become fragmented from various parts of the world.

The global reach, and potential threat, of avian flu is apparent from the various articles published today. Whilst it’s pleasing to read that China has not found any new cases of bird flu for the last 44 days, we see that bird flu marches onwards throughout Europe - particularly the former Eastern bloc countries such as the Czech Republic.

The Czech Republic are reporting only a small number of cases in wild birds and have not yet found any incidences of avian influenza in its commercial flocks.

The situation in Africa remains concerning as a number of countries are reporting bird flu cases. If you have ever visited some of the markets in African countries, where birds, animals and people are in close proximity - you can understand how many experts fear that this may be the venue for the H5N1 to mutate into a human transmissable form.

We must find some encouragement though, that even poor countries with limited resources are placing bird flu monitoring and prevention high on their priority lists. The responsibilty of keeping the H5N1 virus as a bird, rather than a human, disease probably rests on their shoulders.

Whilst preparing the news snippets for SurvivingFlu.com today, it became obvious that the public is receiving mixed messages from the various news media.

On the one hand we hear that no other birds tested in the UK, have been found with H5N1 bird flu, and on the other we learn that H5N1 is probably not going to be the virus that triggers a global pandemic. We feel encouraged by this, and resume our optimism that all will be OK.

Unfortunately the next article gives us a jolt as we realise what impact a flu pandemic would have on our society. 100,000 children could die, and thats just in the UK. Optimism turns to gloom, but we must realise that projections like this are important so that governments can make suitable plans to protect our way of live.

Rather than being alarmed, perhaps we should be reassured that the threat is being taken seriously and proactive measures are being put into place.

In the meantime, lets keep this whole thng in proportion. Bird flu affects birds and not humans and unless there is very close contact with infected birds, this is almost certainly how it will remain.

Apologies to those who are reading this who are not from the UK, however I have found a list of the ten most likely birds that could carry bird flu into the United Kingdom.

Published here by the BBC, this is an informative list of waterfowl which should help people distinguish susceptible birds, should they find them.

I wondered in an earlier article if seagulls are prone to bird flu. It looks like they are. According to another BBC article, “Three dead seagulls found at a boating lake in Gloucester are also being tested for the disease. A city council spokesman said they were being tested as a precaution and the risk of the gulls having died of bird flu was “minimal”.

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