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I received an email from a visitor at SurvivingFlu.com today that got me thinking.

The sender of the email was asking for my views about stock-piling food and provisions for when the pandemic engulfs us.

It made me remember my thoughts in January of this year when I really did feel that the world was about to be hit by a bird flu pandemic.� Of course running SurvivingFlu means that I’ve learnt a huge amount more about avian influenza now and I’ve seen how it is spreading throughout the world.

The more I’ve learnt about bird flu over the last six months, the more convinced I’ve become that H5N1 bird flu will not be the next pandemic - its been around for a long time now and hasn’t made the evolutionary leap into a human transmissable killer.

Then along came the Indionesian cluster of bird flu cases.� It is likely that human transmission was playing a part there.

My confidence in our safety from the disease was shaken.� Maybe, I thought, this is the spark that could create a world wide pandemic.

However those seven cases were contained within a tight cluster and the surrounding population was not infected with H5N1.

So I did wobble, albeit briefly, but I still remain reasonably confident that the next influenza pandemic, whenever it comes along, will not be from the current H5N1 strain.